ANALYSIS | The NDP-Liberal deal is no more — here's what could happen next | CBC News (2024)

Aaron Wherry · CBC News

· Posted: Sep 05, 2024 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: September 5

So the answer to the question of how much longer the Liberal-NDP deal wouldlast turnedout to be "not much."

"Today, I notified the prime minister that I have ripped up the supply-and-confidence agreement," NDPLeader Jagmeet Singh announced in a pre-recorded video posted onlineWednesday afternoon.

The deal signed by the Liberals and New Democrats in March 2022 promised that there would be "no surprises" between the two parties. When it came time to end the deal,the government got little advance warning— Singh emailed the prime minister about an hour before theNDPleader's message became public.

"I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the last years, rather than focusing on politics," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau later tolda news conference in Newfoundland, where he was announcing the first federal-provincial deal to support school nutrition programs.

Officially, the historic deal between the Liberals and NDP was supposed to last until June 2025. But it may have beennearing the endofits natural life expectancy.

A similar deal signed between the NDP and Greens in British Columbia in 2017 lasted a little over three years. A deal between the Ontario Liberals and NDPsigned in 1985 was in place for two years. This agreement lasted roughly two and a half years.

It might be simply too hard to sustaina parliamentary accord much longer than that in Canada's current political environment.And Singh's announcement shouldn't come as a complete surprise.

Why did the NDP walk away?

In announcing his party's withdrawal, Singh actually said little about the agreement itself and offered no real explanation for his decisionto walk away now. In his letter to the prime minister, Singh said New Democrats are "frustrated" with the government's "slow and reluctant approach" but did not point to any specific demands that had gone unmet.

In lieu of any single deal-breaker, it's easier to speculate about the possible political and tactical considerations.

Politically, New Democrats likely needto put some distance between themselves and the Liberals. As long as the deal remained in place, the NDP was directly tied to an unpopular government, a fact that Conservatives — with eyes on several seats currently held by the NDP — were only too happy to point out.

And whilenew policies and programs have been implemented as a result of the agreement, the New Democrats do not seem to be reaping any immediate rewards in terms of public support —election projections currently have them winning fewer seats than they won in 2021.

Much of what the Liberals and NDP initially put in writing is at least now in the process of being completed. Tactically,theNDPmight also now hope to makenew demands and seizenew gains by reverting to a situation wherethe government has to negotiate on a case-by-case basis— or to at least force the government to say no to specific things.In his letter to the prime minister, Singh said theNDPwould "approach every vote on its own merit" and "push for additional measures to help Canadians."

WATCH: Singh posts campaign-style video after ending agreement with Liberals

Singh's video on Wednesday conspicuously resembled a campaign launch and it's fair to say the chances of an early election haveincreased in the last 24 hours.But the demise of the Liberal-NDP deal does not necessarily mean this Parliament is facing imminent dissolution.

In effect, the House of Commons will merely return to thenormal state of affairs where no one party has a majority of seats — what Bob Rae once called the "day-to-day blackmail bullsh*t" of a minority Parliament.

The politics of this new old normal were already taking shape on Wednesday.

What comes next?

"I think the NDP is going to have to make decisions about whether or not they want to stand with (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre, who's going to cut the school food programs, cut dental care, not deliver on pharmacare," Trudeau said. "Or whether they're going to focus on what it means to Canadians to be there to give them support through this difficult time."

Poilievre, who days ago called on Singh to withdraw his support for the government, dismissed the NDP leader's announcement as a "stunt" and notedthat the NDP was not committed to voting to defeat the government in the House. It's safe to assume the Conservatives will test Singh by putting a vote of non-confidence before the House at the earliest opportunity this fall.

WATCH: Trudeau reacts to termination of deal with NDP

Even if there were obvious downsides to maintaining the supply-and-confidence agreement, Singh now has a tricky hand to play.

While much of what the Liberals and NDP agreed to pursue in March 2022 is now done, or nearly so, important elements remain short of completion. A bill to expand voting opportunities is still in the House and pharmacare legislation is still in the Senate.

Crucially, while the Liberals and NDPhave agreed on a plan that would see the federal government fund free contraception and diabetes treatment for Canadians, the federal government still hasn't completed deals with provincial governments to actually deliver those benefits.

If opposition parties triggered a federal electiontomorrow, any pharmacare negotiations would be paused —and Poilievre's Conservatives, if they came to power, likely wouldn't feel compelled to follow through on the unfinished business of the Liberal-NDP agreement.

It's also not obvious why eitherthe Liberals or NDP should want an election in the immediate future. All available polling suggests the most likely outcome would be a large Conservative majority.

And progressive activists mightstart to worry about what could be lost if the government is defeated.

None of which means the Liberals can take the NDP's support for granted. But even ifSingh has decided to "rip up" (figuratively, one assumes) their agreement, the Liberals and NDPseem to still have reasons to work together for a while yet.

• Just Askingwants to know: What questions do you have about the end of the Liberal-NDP agreement?Fill out the details onthis formand send us your questions ahead of our show on Sept. 7.

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